on average across worlds, yes; or if the distribution in your weather simulator says most expected weather events in that timeframe are small, yes. but for a given timeline, extreme weather events would be expected to be biased in one direction in terms of which areas were impacted by which events. if you change the random seed for the weather 5 times, then based on my current knowledge and in the current time period I expect you’ll get at least 5 different natural disasters, which are each region-correlated in their impact, and so can have a significant bias in which votes they flip on an economic recovery basis. this is faul_sname’s argument for election day weather events, but generalized to any weather event extreme enough to impact economic fortunes. if the weather events are small enough to impact people’s economic fortunes individually, then yeah, the expected impact goes down due to law of large numbers, but I also don’t expect small weather events to significantly impact votes, due to the same argument you made about humans being optimizers. (election day weather also might be enough, but I expect a significant number of natural disasters before 2028.)
on average across worlds, yes; or if the distribution in your weather simulator says most expected weather events in that timeframe are small, yes. but for a given timeline, extreme weather events would be expected to be biased in one direction in terms of which areas were impacted by which events. if you change the random seed for the weather 5 times, then based on my current knowledge and in the current time period I expect you’ll get at least 5 different natural disasters, which are each region-correlated in their impact, and so can have a significant bias in which votes they flip on an economic recovery basis. this is faul_sname’s argument for election day weather events, but generalized to any weather event extreme enough to impact economic fortunes. if the weather events are small enough to impact people’s economic fortunes individually, then yeah, the expected impact goes down due to law of large numbers, but I also don’t expect small weather events to significantly impact votes, due to the same argument you made about humans being optimizers. (election day weather also might be enough, but I expect a significant number of natural disasters before 2028.)