It seems like this is an example of, at best, a domain on which decisionmaking could use TDT. No one is denying that people could use TDT, though. I was hoping for you to demonstrate an example where people actually seem to be behaving in accordance with TDT. (It is not enough to just argue that people reason fairly similarly in certain domains).
“Isomorphic” is a strong word. Let me know if you have a better example.
Anyway let me go back to this from your previous comment:
Tragedies of commons are not universally unresolvable....Simply saying “It’s a tragedy of the commons problem” doesn’t mean there’s no chance of resolving it and therefore no use in knowing about it.
No one is claiming tragedies of the commons are always unresolvable. We are claiming that unresolved tragedies of the commons are tragedies of the commons! You seem to be suggesting that knowledge is a special thing which enables us to possibly resolve tragedies of the commons and therefore we should seek it out. But in the context of global warming and the current discussion, knowledge-collection is the tragedy of the commons. To the extent that people are underincentivized to seek out knowledge, that is the commons problem we’re talking about.
If you turn around and say, “well they should be seeking out more knowledge because it could potentially resolve the tragedy”...well of course more knowledge could resolve the tragedy of not having enough knowledge, but you have conjured up your “should” from nowhere! The tragedy we’re discussing is what exists after rational individuals decide to gather exactly as much information as a rational agent “should,” where should is defined with respect to that agent’s preferences and the incentives he faces.
Final question: If TDT reasoning did magically get us to the level of informedness on global warming that you think we rationally should be attaining, and if we are not attaining that level of informedness, does that not imply that we aren’t using TDT reasoning? And if other people aren’t using TDT reasoning, does that not imply that it is NOT a good idea for me to start using it? You seem to think that TDT has something to do with how rational agents “should” behave here, but I just don’t see how TDT is relevant.
By “TDT reasoning”—I know, I know—I have been meaning Desrtopa’s use of “TDT reasoning,” which seems to be like TDT + [assumption that everyone else is using TDT].
I shouldn’t say that TDT is irrelevant, but really that it is a needless generalization in this context. I meant that Desrtopa’s invocation of TDT was irrelevant, in that it did nothing to fix the commons problem that we were initially discussing without mention of TDT.
You seem to be suggesting that knowledge is a special thing which enables us to possibly resolve tragedies of the commons and therefore we should seek it out. But in the context of global warming and the current discussion, knowledge-collection is the tragedy of the commons. To the extent that people are underincentivized to seek out knowledge, that is the commons problem we’re talking about.
Lack of knowledge of global warming isn’t the tragedy of the commons I’m talking about; even if everyone were informed about global warming, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’d resolve it. Humans can suffer from global climate change despite the entire population being informed about it, and we might find a way to resolve it that works despite most of the population being ignorant.
The question a person starting from a position of ignorance about climate change has to answer is “should I expect that learning about this issue has benefits to me in excess of the effort I’ll have to put in to learn about it?” An answer of “no” corresponds to a low general expectation of information value considering the high availability of the information.
The reason I brought up TDT was as an example of reasoning that relies on a correlation between one agent’s choices and another’s. I didn’t claim at any point that people are actually using TDT. However, if decision theory that assumes correlation between people’s decisions did not outcompete decision theory which does not assume any correlation, we wouldn’t have evolved cooperative tendencies in the first place.
It seems like this is an example of, at best, a domain on which decisionmaking could use TDT. No one is denying that people could use TDT, though. I was hoping for you to demonstrate an example where people actually seem to be behaving in accordance with TDT. (It is not enough to just argue that people reason fairly similarly in certain domains).
“Isomorphic” is a strong word. Let me know if you have a better example.
Anyway let me go back to this from your previous comment:
No one is claiming tragedies of the commons are always unresolvable. We are claiming that unresolved tragedies of the commons are tragedies of the commons! You seem to be suggesting that knowledge is a special thing which enables us to possibly resolve tragedies of the commons and therefore we should seek it out. But in the context of global warming and the current discussion, knowledge-collection is the tragedy of the commons. To the extent that people are underincentivized to seek out knowledge, that is the commons problem we’re talking about.
If you turn around and say, “well they should be seeking out more knowledge because it could potentially resolve the tragedy”...well of course more knowledge could resolve the tragedy of not having enough knowledge, but you have conjured up your “should” from nowhere! The tragedy we’re discussing is what exists after rational individuals decide to gather exactly as much information as a rational agent “should,” where should is defined with respect to that agent’s preferences and the incentives he faces.
Final question: If TDT reasoning did magically get us to the level of informedness on global warming that you think we rationally should be attaining, and if we are not attaining that level of informedness, does that not imply that we aren’t using TDT reasoning? And if other people aren’t using TDT reasoning, does that not imply that it is NOT a good idea for me to start using it? You seem to think that TDT has something to do with how rational agents “should” behave here, but I just don’t see how TDT is relevant.
NO! It implies that you go ahead and use TDT reasoning—which tells you to defect in this case! TDT is not about cooperation!
wedrifid, RIGHT. Sorry, got a little sloppy.
By “TDT reasoning”—I know, I know—I have been meaning Desrtopa’s use of “TDT reasoning,” which seems to be like TDT + [assumption that everyone else is using TDT].
I shouldn’t say that TDT is irrelevant, but really that it is a needless generalization in this context. I meant that Desrtopa’s invocation of TDT was irrelevant, in that it did nothing to fix the commons problem that we were initially discussing without mention of TDT.
Lack of knowledge of global warming isn’t the tragedy of the commons I’m talking about; even if everyone were informed about global warming, it doesn’t necessarily mean we’d resolve it. Humans can suffer from global climate change despite the entire population being informed about it, and we might find a way to resolve it that works despite most of the population being ignorant.
The question a person starting from a position of ignorance about climate change has to answer is “should I expect that learning about this issue has benefits to me in excess of the effort I’ll have to put in to learn about it?” An answer of “no” corresponds to a low general expectation of information value considering the high availability of the information.
The reason I brought up TDT was as an example of reasoning that relies on a correlation between one agent’s choices and another’s. I didn’t claim at any point that people are actually using TDT. However, if decision theory that assumes correlation between people’s decisions did not outcompete decision theory which does not assume any correlation, we wouldn’t have evolved cooperative tendencies in the first place.