Interesting John Carmack AGI contrast. Carmack is extremely optimistic on AGI timelines, he’s now working on it full time, quitting Facebook, and just started a new company in the last two weeks. Carmack estimates a 55% or 60% chance of AGI by 2030. His estimate prior to 2022 was 50% chance but he increased it because he thinks things are accelerating. But he also thinks work on AI safety is extremely premature. Essentially he’s confident about a very slow takeoff scenario, so there will be plenty of time to iron it out after we have an AI at human-toddler-level doing useful things.
Taken from Carmack on the Lex Friedman podcast today:
I have a similar games/graphics first then ML/AI background, i’m pretty familiar with his thought style, and there was very little surprising about most of his implied path except the part about there being plenty of time to worry about safety after toddler AGI. By the time you have that figured out then hardware overhang should pretty quickly expand that AGI population up to on order number of GPUs in the world.
Interesting John Carmack AGI contrast. Carmack is extremely optimistic on AGI timelines, he’s now working on it full time, quitting Facebook, and just started a new company in the last two weeks. Carmack estimates a 55% or 60% chance of AGI by 2030. His estimate prior to 2022 was 50% chance but he increased it because he thinks things are accelerating. But he also thinks work on AI safety is extremely premature. Essentially he’s confident about a very slow takeoff scenario, so there will be plenty of time to iron it out after we have an AI at human-toddler-level doing useful things.
Taken from Carmack on the Lex Friedman podcast today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4&t=16480s
I have a similar games/graphics first then ML/AI background, i’m pretty familiar with his thought style, and there was very little surprising about most of his implied path except the part about there being plenty of time to worry about safety after toddler AGI. By the time you have that figured out then hardware overhang should pretty quickly expand that AGI population up to on order number of GPUs in the world.