Your conclusion is possible. But I’ll admit I find it hard to believe that non-rationalists really lack the ability to take ideas seriously. The 1 = 2 example is a little silly, but I’ve known lots of not-very-rational people who take ideas seriously. For example, people who stopped using a microwave when they heard about an experiment supposedly showing that microwaved water kills plants. People who threw out all their plastic dishes after the media picked up a study about health dangers caused by plastics. People who spent a lot of time thinking positive thoughts because they have heard it will make them successful.
Could it be that proto-rationalists are just bad at quantifying their level of belief? Normally, I’d trust somebody’s claim to believe something more if they’re willing to bet on it; and if they aren’t willing to bet on it, then I’d think their real level of belief is lower.
Your examples require magic, pseudoscience, conspiracy theories. Perhaps the advantage of rationalists is the ability to take boring ideas seriously. (Even immortality is boring when all you have to do is to buy a life insurance, sign a few papers and wait. And admit that it most likely will not work. And that if it will work, it will pretty much be the science as usual.)
Making things happen with positive thinking requires magic. But myths about the health effects of microwaves or plastic bottles are dressed up to look like science as usual. The microwave thing is supposedly based on the effect of radiation on the DNA in your food or something—nonsense, but to someone with little science literacy not necessarily distinguishable from talk about the information-theoretic definition of death.
I’m not sure that signing papers to have a team of scientists stand by and freeze your brain when you die is more boring than cooking your food without a microwave oven. I would guess that cryonics being “weird”, “gross”, and “unnatural” would be more relevant.
“There’s a health danger involved with plastic dishes” sounds quite boring to me. (“Oh, yet another study about some random substance causing cancer? Yawn.”)
Your conclusion is possible. But I’ll admit I find it hard to believe that non-rationalists really lack the ability to take ideas seriously. The 1 = 2 example is a little silly, but I’ve known lots of not-very-rational people who take ideas seriously. For example, people who stopped using a microwave when they heard about an experiment supposedly showing that microwaved water kills plants. People who threw out all their plastic dishes after the media picked up a study about health dangers caused by plastics. People who spent a lot of time thinking positive thoughts because they have heard it will make them successful.
Could it be that proto-rationalists are just bad at quantifying their level of belief? Normally, I’d trust somebody’s claim to believe something more if they’re willing to bet on it; and if they aren’t willing to bet on it, then I’d think their real level of belief is lower.
Your examples require magic, pseudoscience, conspiracy theories. Perhaps the advantage of rationalists is the ability to take boring ideas seriously. (Even immortality is boring when all you have to do is to buy a life insurance, sign a few papers and wait. And admit that it most likely will not work. And that if it will work, it will pretty much be the science as usual.)
Making things happen with positive thinking requires magic. But myths about the health effects of microwaves or plastic bottles are dressed up to look like science as usual. The microwave thing is supposedly based on the effect of radiation on the DNA in your food or something—nonsense, but to someone with little science literacy not necessarily distinguishable from talk about the information-theoretic definition of death.
I’m not sure that signing papers to have a team of scientists stand by and freeze your brain when you die is more boring than cooking your food without a microwave oven. I would guess that cryonics being “weird”, “gross”, and “unnatural” would be more relevant.
“There’s a health danger involved with plastic dishes” sounds quite boring to me. (“Oh, yet another study about some random substance causing cancer? Yawn.”)