better calibrated than any of these opinions, because most of them don’t seem to focus very much on “hedging” or “thoughtful doubting”
new observations > new thoughts when it comes to calibrating yourself.
The best calibrated people are people who get lots of interaction with the real world, not those who think a lot or have a complicated inner model. Tetlock’s super forecasters were gamblers and weathermen.
new observations > new thoughts when it comes to calibrating yourself.
The best calibrated people are people who get lots of interaction with the real world, not those who think a lot or have a complicated inner model. Tetlock’s super forecasters were gamblers and weathermen.