In response to your first point, reportedly 19 judges found time and again in the year of hearings leading up to the trial there was sufficient cause that Knox and Sollecito were involved. While I myself have argued elsewhere about how complex the explanation is that is required from the prosecution’s theory of the three of them in the room in some sex orgy gone wrong, neither do I think that a full examination of all of the physical evidence of the crime scene supports a theory of Guede acting alone.
Your assessment that the Knox/Sollecito theory is a physically complex one is based on the evidence in the room and our conventional understanding of DNA. I’ll agree that based on that there’s a much higher factor of probability of the Guede “Lone Wolf” then there is of Knox/Sollecito.
I’ll also agree that there is strong evidence found that Guede was in the room at or near the time of death, compared to almost none found for Knox/Sollecito.
As far as cognitive biases, I’ve tried to examine each part of physical evidence and testimony on its merits, not on what conclusions other people have made. In doing so, I’ve learned about Luminol and its interactions with bleach and LCN DNA testing which both assist in assessing the weight of the evidence presented. In the case of the other physical evidence of the house, i.e. the potentially staged break-in I’ve looked at it in terms of plausibility. I have argued elsewhere that it was entirely plausible the break-in was real; that plausibility took a hit when I saw the physical evidence of how the glass was broken in the window.
I’ll also agree that Occam’s razor make the Prosecution’s theory highly implausible.
But there are other hypothesis suggested by the physical evidence. I find that after arriving at your conclusion that Guede is the one that the “winds of evidence” blow to, you then use that to dismiss evidence that would point to the involvement of others as “noise.” This is despite your earlier statement that one should ” be blown by the winds of evidence toward one or more possible suspects.”
A bloody half-footprint on the bathmat in the bathroom is such evidence. It is in the victim’s blood. No prints leading up to it were found-no other bare footprints in visible blood were found at all. On that basis, the police conducted a physical test and found two-three other prints revealed by luminol near the scene, two of them of a quite different foot size. That is physical evidence that doesn’t point to Guede.
With physical evidence that points to someone other then Guede, I therefore disagree with your conclusion that the jury’s decision was a “gigantic, disastrous rationality failure on the part of our species.”
In response to your first point, reportedly 19 judges found time and again in the year of hearings leading up to the trial there was sufficient cause that Knox and Sollecito were involved. While I myself have argued elsewhere about how complex the explanation is that is required from the prosecution’s theory of the three of them in the room in some sex orgy gone wrong, neither do I think that a full examination of all of the physical evidence of the crime scene supports a theory of Guede acting alone.
Your assessment that the Knox/Sollecito theory is a physically complex one is based on the evidence in the room and our conventional understanding of DNA. I’ll agree that based on that there’s a much higher factor of probability of the Guede “Lone Wolf” then there is of Knox/Sollecito.
I’ll also agree that there is strong evidence found that Guede was in the room at or near the time of death, compared to almost none found for Knox/Sollecito.
As far as cognitive biases, I’ve tried to examine each part of physical evidence and testimony on its merits, not on what conclusions other people have made. In doing so, I’ve learned about Luminol and its interactions with bleach and LCN DNA testing which both assist in assessing the weight of the evidence presented. In the case of the other physical evidence of the house, i.e. the potentially staged break-in I’ve looked at it in terms of plausibility. I have argued elsewhere that it was entirely plausible the break-in was real; that plausibility took a hit when I saw the physical evidence of how the glass was broken in the window.
I’ll also agree that Occam’s razor make the Prosecution’s theory highly implausible.
But there are other hypothesis suggested by the physical evidence. I find that after arriving at your conclusion that Guede is the one that the “winds of evidence” blow to, you then use that to dismiss evidence that would point to the involvement of others as “noise.” This is despite your earlier statement that one should ” be blown by the winds of evidence toward one or more possible suspects.”
A bloody half-footprint on the bathmat in the bathroom is such evidence. It is in the victim’s blood. No prints leading up to it were found-no other bare footprints in visible blood were found at all. On that basis, the police conducted a physical test and found two-three other prints revealed by luminol near the scene, two of them of a quite different foot size. That is physical evidence that doesn’t point to Guede.
With physical evidence that points to someone other then Guede, I therefore disagree with your conclusion that the jury’s decision was a “gigantic, disastrous rationality failure on the part of our species.”