People reproduce at an exponential rate. The amount of food we can create is finite. Population growth will eventually outstrip production. Humanity will starve unless population control is implemented by governments.
The calculation and the predictions were correct until the 1960′s, including very gloomy views that wars around food would begin happening by the 1980′s. What changed things was the Green Revolution. Weren’t for this technological breakthrough no one could actually have predicted, and right now we might be looking back at 40 years of wars, plenty more dictatorships and authoritarian regimes all around, some going for multiple wars against their neighbors, others with long running one child policies of their own.
So, in addition to the points you made, I’d add that many times uncertainty comes from “unknown unknowns” such as not knowing what technologies will be developed, while at other times it comes from hoping certain technologies will be developed, betting on them, but then those failing to materialize.
Is it worth acting when you’re comparing a 0.051% chance of doing good to a 0.049% chance of doing harm?
I’d say Chesterton’s Fence provides a reasonable heuristics for such cases.
About this:
The calculation and the predictions were correct until the 1960′s, including very gloomy views that wars around food would begin happening by the 1980′s. What changed things was the Green Revolution. Weren’t for this technological breakthrough no one could actually have predicted, and right now we might be looking back at 40 years of wars, plenty more dictatorships and authoritarian regimes all around, some going for multiple wars against their neighbors, others with long running one child policies of their own.
So, in addition to the points you made, I’d add that many times uncertainty comes from “unknown unknowns” such as not knowing what technologies will be developed, while at other times it comes from hoping certain technologies will be developed, betting on them, but then those failing to materialize.
I’d say Chesterton’s Fence provides a reasonable heuristics for such cases.