[Question] How do we know dreams aren’t real?

Suppose you believe the following:

  1. the universe is infinite in the sense that every possible combination of atoms is repeated an infinite number of times (either because the negative curvature of the universe implies the universe is unbounded or because of MWI)

  2. Consciousness is an atomic phenomena[1]. That is to say, the only special relationship between past-you and present you is that present you remembers being past you.

In this case, we seem to get something similar to “dust” in Greg Egan’s Permutation City, where any sequence of events leading to the present you having your present memories could be considered the “real you”.

However, the “conscious you” of your dreams does not have any special attachment or memory to the waking you. That is to say at least sometimes when I’m dreaming (that I am driving a car or falling off a cliff or whatever) I am not also thinking “but this is all a dream and I will wake up soon”.

Together, this seems to imply that when I dream there is (somewhere in the universe) a real person who is having the exact same conscious experience as my dream (but is awake).

Now, most of my dreams are fairly ridiculous, so I expect the “probability” that what I am dreaming is “real” is quite small (but not zero).

Maybe this is the same as Boltzmann Brains (where the probability is so small we just ignore it). But some of my dreams aren’t that unrealistic.

So, the question is: does this imply that when I’m dreaming there is some probability that I never wake up and the dream me becomes the “real me”? If not, why not?

  1. ^

    Is there an official name for this theory? ChatGPT suggests “bundle theory” or “Momentariness”, but both of those seem to have additional philosophical baggage attached