I think there’s some confusion in your discussion of variant growth rates. Moritz Gerstung and Andy Slavitt are both quoting numbers around 10% per day, which corresponds to the new/old variant ratio having a ~7 day doubling time.
This is consistent with the CDC Nowcast.
For comparison, BA.1/Delta had a ~2.5 day doubling time, Delta/Alpha ratio about 5 days, and Alpha/wild about 12 days.
I think there’s some confusion in your discussion of variant growth rates. Moritz Gerstung and Andy Slavitt are both quoting numbers around 10% per day, which corresponds to the new/old variant ratio having a ~7 day doubling time.
This is consistent with the CDC Nowcast.
For comparison, BA.1/Delta had a ~2.5 day doubling time, Delta/Alpha ratio about 5 days, and Alpha/wild about 12 days.