If “expected” effectively means what you’re saying is that you’re being offered a bet that is good by definition, that even at 50⁄50 odds, you take the bet, I suppose that’s true. If the bet is static for a second flip, it wouldn’t be a good deal, but if it dynamically altered such that it was once again a good bet by definition, I suppose you keep taking the bet.
If you’re engaging with the uncertainty that people are bad at evaluating things like “expected utility” then at least some of the point is that our naive intuitions are probably missing some of the math, and costs, and the bet is likely a bad bet.
If I was trying to give credence to that second possibility, I’d say that the word “expected” is now doing a bunch of hidden heavy lifting in the payoff structure, and you don’t really know what lifting it’s doing.
I’d missed that, thank you for pointing that out.
If “expected” effectively means what you’re saying is that you’re being offered a bet that is good by definition, that even at 50⁄50 odds, you take the bet, I suppose that’s true. If the bet is static for a second flip, it wouldn’t be a good deal, but if it dynamically altered such that it was once again a good bet by definition, I suppose you keep taking the bet.
If you’re engaging with the uncertainty that people are bad at evaluating things like “expected utility” then at least some of the point is that our naive intuitions are probably missing some of the math, and costs, and the bet is likely a bad bet.
If I was trying to give credence to that second possibility, I’d say that the word “expected” is now doing a bunch of hidden heavy lifting in the payoff structure, and you don’t really know what lifting it’s doing.