This means that in the future, there will likely be a spectrum of AIs of varying levels of intelligence, some much smarter than humans, others only slightly smarter, and still others merely human-level.
Are you imagining that the alignment problem is still unsolved in the future, such that all of these AIs are independent agents unaligned with each other (like humans currently are)? I guess in my imagined world, ASIs will have solved the alignment (or maybe control) problem at least for less intelligent agents, so you’d get large groups of AIs aligned with each other that can for many purposes be viewed as one large AI.
Building on (5), I generally expect AIs to calculate that it is not in their interest to expropriate wealth from other members of society, given how this could set a precedent for future wealth expropriation that comes back and hurts them selfishly.
At some point we’ll reach technological maturity, and the ASIs will be able to foresee all remaining future shocks/changes to their economic/political systems, and probably determine that expropriating humans (and anyone else they decide to, I agree it may not be limited to humans) won’t cause any future problems.
Even if a tiny fraction of consumer demand in the future is for stuff produced by humans, that could ensure high human wages simply because the economy will be so large.
This is only true if there’s not a single human that decides to freely copy or otherwise reproduce themselves and drive down human wages to subsistence. And I guess yeah, maybe AIs will have fetishes like this, but (like my reaction to Paul Christiano’s “1/trillion kindness” argument) I’m worried whether AIs might have less benign fetishes. This worry more than cancels out the prospect that humans might live / earn a wage from benign fetishes in my mind.
This might be the most important point on my list, despite saying it last, but I think humans will likely be able to eventually upgrade their intelligence, better allowing them to “keep up” with the state of the world in the future.
I agree this will happen eventually (if humans survive), but think it will take a long time because we’ll have to solve a bunch of philosophical problems to determine how to do this safely (e.g. without losing or distorting our values) and we probably can’t trust AI’s help with these (although I’d love to change that, hence my focus on metaphilosophy), and in the meantime AIs will be zooming ahead partly because they started off thinking faster and partly because some will be reckless (like some humans currently are!) or have simple values that don’t require philosophical contemplation to understand, so the situation I described is still likely to occur.
Are you imagining that the alignment problem is still unsolved in the future, such that all of these AIs are independent agents unaligned with each other (like humans currently are)? I guess in my imagined world, ASIs will have solved the alignment (or maybe control) problem at least for less intelligent agents, so you’d get large groups of AIs aligned with each other that can for many purposes be viewed as one large AI.
At some point we’ll reach technological maturity, and the ASIs will be able to foresee all remaining future shocks/changes to their economic/political systems, and probably determine that expropriating humans (and anyone else they decide to, I agree it may not be limited to humans) won’t cause any future problems.
This is only true if there’s not a single human that decides to freely copy or otherwise reproduce themselves and drive down human wages to subsistence. And I guess yeah, maybe AIs will have fetishes like this, but (like my reaction to Paul Christiano’s “1/trillion kindness” argument) I’m worried whether AIs might have less benign fetishes. This worry more than cancels out the prospect that humans might live / earn a wage from benign fetishes in my mind.
I agree this will happen eventually (if humans survive), but think it will take a long time because we’ll have to solve a bunch of philosophical problems to determine how to do this safely (e.g. without losing or distorting our values) and we probably can’t trust AI’s help with these (although I’d love to change that, hence my focus on metaphilosophy), and in the meantime AIs will be zooming ahead partly because they started off thinking faster and partly because some will be reckless (like some humans currently are!) or have simple values that don’t require philosophical contemplation to understand, so the situation I described is still likely to occur.