I think “Metaculus” is a pun on “meta”, “calculus” and “meticulous”.
“WW3” and “28 years passing” are similarly dangerous “events” for the individual gambler. Why invest with a long-term perspective if there is a significant probability that you eventually cannot harvest… Crucially, the probability of not harvesting the reward may be a lot higher in a “force majeure” situation like WW3, even if one stays alive. But on the other hand, an early WW3 would chop off a lot of the individual existential risk associated with 28 years passing. 🤔 I think there could be major biases here, also possibly affected by “doomsday” propaganda centered on exaggerated “nuclear winter” predictions.
The possibility of outright manipulation of prediction markets should be thoroughly considered when the fates of Ukraine, NATO, Russia and Putin are at stake. If the cost of maintaining “favorable yet mutually consistent” predictions is within, say, a few hundred million dollars per year, it could be a good idea, as long as the enemy has no similar opposing operation going on...
I think “Metaculus” is a pun on “meta”, “calculus” and “meticulous”.
“WW3” and “28 years passing” are similarly dangerous “events” for the individual gambler. Why invest with a long-term perspective if there is a significant probability that you eventually cannot harvest… Crucially, the probability of not harvesting the reward may be a lot higher in a “force majeure” situation like WW3, even if one stays alive. But on the other hand, an early WW3 would chop off a lot of the individual existential risk associated with 28 years passing. 🤔 I think there could be major biases here, also possibly affected by “doomsday” propaganda centered on exaggerated “nuclear winter” predictions.
The possibility of outright manipulation of prediction markets should be thoroughly considered when the fates of Ukraine, NATO, Russia and Putin are at stake. If the cost of maintaining “favorable yet mutually consistent” predictions is within, say, a few hundred million dollars per year, it could be a good idea, as long as the enemy has no similar opposing operation going on...