I think when you look at level remaining support for truly disastrously unpopular governments, it seems about 50-60% of population view politics as tribal and would vote for their tribe no matter who the candidate is or what the policy statement. Furthermore, voters are likely to vote for party rather than candidate because you only get your preferred policies if you your party wins. Of the remainder, a substantial proportion are still tribal and would only vote for the opposition rarely in cases where fed up. (“death of a thousand cuts”). Truly swinging voters probably have a disproportionate influence on elections. As an outsider looking in on USA, it seems to me that polarization is being driven by a balkanized media (people can effectively choose a “reality” from their news sources). These can fan tribalism (it is in the media interest) using the traditional tribal identities of race, religion and class. Excessive power given to president compared to congress bypasses the ameliorating influences that parliamentary systems possess. The voting system in USA also makes it extremely hard for other parties to attract any votes so the art of compromise necessary in proportional systems is missing (and indeed despised).
Not sure I understand how this explains the polarization of politicians. What is preventing Biden from saying “Abortion is a state issue”? His tribe will still support him, but some fraction of the swing voters will find him more appealing. Couldn’t it sway the elections in his favor? Why didn’t he do it?
Generally I don’t see how tribalism is a challenge to the thesis.
Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling.
I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you would change your platform to become more electable. (Look at the rise the “Labour” parties in countries like UK, Australia and NZ as they gradually lost extreme positions. Similar things are happening in Green movements).
I think when you look at level remaining support for truly disastrously unpopular governments, it seems about 50-60% of population view politics as tribal and would vote for their tribe no matter who the candidate is or what the policy statement. Furthermore, voters are likely to vote for party rather than candidate because you only get your preferred policies if you your party wins. Of the remainder, a substantial proportion are still tribal and would only vote for the opposition rarely in cases where fed up. (“death of a thousand cuts”). Truly swinging voters probably have a disproportionate influence on elections. As an outsider looking in on USA, it seems to me that polarization is being driven by a balkanized media (people can effectively choose a “reality” from their news sources). These can fan tribalism (it is in the media interest) using the traditional tribal identities of race, religion and class. Excessive power given to president compared to congress bypasses the ameliorating influences that parliamentary systems possess. The voting system in USA also makes it extremely hard for other parties to attract any votes so the art of compromise necessary in proportional systems is missing (and indeed despised).
Not sure I understand how this explains the polarization of politicians. What is preventing Biden from saying “Abortion is a state issue”? His tribe will still support him, but some fraction of the swing voters will find him more appealing. Couldn’t it sway the elections in his favor? Why didn’t he do it? Generally I don’t see how tribalism is a challenge to the thesis.
Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling.
I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you would change your platform to become more electable. (Look at the rise the “Labour” parties in countries like UK, Australia and NZ as they gradually lost extreme positions. Similar things are happening in Green movements).