Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling.
I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you would change your platform to become more electable. (Look at the rise the “Labour” parties in countries like UK, Australia and NZ as they gradually lost extreme positions. Similar things are happening in Green movements).
Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling.
I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you would change your platform to become more electable. (Look at the rise the “Labour” parties in countries like UK, Australia and NZ as they gradually lost extreme positions. Similar things are happening in Green movements).