These are more gut feelings, I had already considered a lot of evidence for and against these before I found out about Bayesian updating, so the bottom line was really already written. If I tried to do a numerically rigorous calculation now, I would just end up double counting evidence. This is just a ’if I had to make a hundred statements of this type that I was this confident about, how often would I be right guess.
These are more gut feelings, I had already considered a lot of evidence for and against these before I found out about Bayesian updating, so the bottom line was really already written. If I tried to do a numerically rigorous calculation now, I would just end up double counting evidence. This is just a ’if I had to make a hundred statements of this type that I was this confident about, how often would I be right guess.
Much though this amuses atheist-curmudgeon me, may I suggest that you might want to fix the typo?
Oops, thnks