Ted Sanders comments on Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

[Ted Sanders]

Right. The idea is: “What are the odds that China invading Taiwan derails chip production conditional on a world where we were otherwise going to successfully scale chip production.”

[Martin Randall]

I would not have guessed that! So in slightly more formal terms:

• CHIPS = There are enough chips for TAGI by 2043

• WAR = There is a war that catastrophically derails chip production by 2043

• P(x) = subjective probability of x

• ObjP(x) = objective probability of x

• P(CHIPS and WAR) = 0% (by definition)

Then as I understand your method, it goes something like:

1. Estimate P(CHIPS given not WAR) = 46%

2. This means that in 46% of worlds, ObjP(CHIPS given not WAR) = 100%. Call these worlds CHIPPY worlds. In all other worlds ObjP(CHIPS given not WAR) = 0%.

3. Estimate P(not WAR given CHIPPY) = 70%.

4. The only option for CHIPS is “not WAR and CHIPPY”.

5. Calculate P(not WAR and CHIPPY) = 70% x 46% = 32.2%.

6. Therefore P(CHIPS) = 32.2%.

(probabilities may differ, this is just illustrative)

However, I don’t think the world is deterministic enough for step 2 to work—the objective probability could be 50% or some other value.

[Ted Sanders]

Bingo