We invent a way for AGIs to learn faster than humans : Why is this even in the table? This would be 1.0 because it’s a known fact, AGI learns faster than humans. Again, from the llama training run, the model went from knowing nothing to domain human level in 1 month. That’s faster. (requiring far more data than humans isn’t an issue)
100% feels overconfident. Some algorithms learning some things faster than humans is not proof that AGI will learn all things faster than humans. Just look at self-driving. It’s taking AI far longer than human teenagers to learn.
AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr (per human equivalent): Well, A100s are 0.87 per hour. A transformative AGI might use 32 A100s. $27.84 an hour. Looks like we’re at 1.0 on this one also.
100% feels overconfident. We don’t know if transformative will need 32 A100s, or more. Our essay explains why we think it’s more. Even if you disagree with us, I struggle to see how you can be 100% sure.
100% feels overconfident. Some algorithms learning some things faster than humans is not proof that AGI will learn all things faster than humans. Just look at self-driving. It’s taking AI far longer than human teenagers to learn.
100% feels overconfident. We don’t know if transformative will need 32 A100s, or more. Our essay explains why we think it’s more. Even if you disagree with us, I struggle to see how you can be 100% sure.
Teenagers generally don’t start learning to drive until they have had fifteen years to orient themselves in the world.
AI and teenagers are not starting from the same point so the comparison does not map very well.