I’m not convinced about the difficulty of operationalizing Eliezer’s doomer bet. Effectively, loaning money to a doomer who plans to spend it all by 2030 is, in essence, a claim on the doomer’s post-2030 human capital. The doomer thinks it’s worthless, whereas the skeptic thinks it has value. Hence, they transact.
The TAGI case seems trickier than the doomer case. Who knows what a one dollar bill will be worth in a post-TAGI world.
I’m not convinced about the difficulty of operationalizing Eliezer’s doomer bet. Effectively, loaning money to a doomer who plans to spend it all by 2030 is, in essence, a claim on the doomer’s post-2030 human capital. The doomer thinks it’s worthless, whereas the skeptic thinks it has value. Hence, they transact.
The TAGI case seems trickier than the doomer case. Who knows what a one dollar bill will be worth in a post-TAGI world.