+1. The derailment probabilities are somewhat independent of the technical barrier probabilities in that they are conditioned on the technical barriers otherwise being overcome (e.g., setting them all to 100%). That said, if you assign high probabilities to the technical barriers being overcome quickly, then the odds of derailment are probably lower, as there are fewer years for derailments to occur and derailments that cause delay by a few years may still be recovered from.
+1. The derailment probabilities are somewhat independent of the technical barrier probabilities in that they are conditioned on the technical barriers otherwise being overcome (e.g., setting them all to 100%). That said, if you assign high probabilities to the technical barriers being overcome quickly, then the odds of derailment are probably lower, as there are fewer years for derailments to occur and derailments that cause delay by a few years may still be recovered from.