Biden will die or otherwise withdraw from the race with 23% likelihood
Biden will fail to be the Democratic nominee for whatever reason at 13% likelihood
either Biden or Trump will fail to win nomination at their respective conventions with 14% likelihood
Biden will win the election with only 34% likelihood
Even if gas fees take a few percentage points off we should expect to make money trading on some of this stuff, right (the money is only locked up for 5 months)? And maybe there are cheap ways to transfer into and out of Polymarket?
I think part of the reason why these odds might seem more off than usual is that Ether and other cryptocurrencies have been going up recently which means there is high demand for leveraged positions. This in turn means that crypto lending services such as aave having been giving ~10% APY on stablecoins which might be more appealing than a riskier, but only a bit higher, return from prediction markets.
Should we anticipate easy profit on Polymarket election markets this year? Its markets seem to think that
Biden will die or otherwise withdraw from the race with 23% likelihood
Biden will fail to be the Democratic nominee for whatever reason at 13% likelihood
either Biden or Trump will fail to win nomination at their respective conventions with 14% likelihood
Biden will win the election with only 34% likelihood
Even if gas fees take a few percentage points off we should expect to make money trading on some of this stuff, right (the money is only locked up for 5 months)? And maybe there are cheap ways to transfer into and out of Polymarket?
I think part of the reason why these odds might seem more off than usual is that Ether and other cryptocurrencies have been going up recently which means there is high demand for leveraged positions. This in turn means that crypto lending services such as aave having been giving ~10% APY on stablecoins which might be more appealing than a riskier, but only a bit higher, return from prediction markets.
They all seem like reasonable estimates to me. What do you think those likelihoods should be?