Is there a way to do this without needing to secure collateral for the refund, using some stable investment vehicle like a CD? “The earlier you pledge, the bigger refund you get if the contract isn’t fully funded” might help avoid the “waiting until the last moment” issue, but maybe there’s some perverse incentive or other blocker.
I’m also very curious about how this method could solve issues with funding of scientific research. The lack of market pricing for research is a major impediment to allocating public funds effectively. But what prediction market can accurately estimate the price of something that might not pay off for 100 years?
Is there a way to do this without needing to secure collateral for the refund, using some stable investment vehicle like a CD? “The earlier you pledge, the bigger refund you get if the contract isn’t fully funded” might help avoid the “waiting until the last moment” issue, but maybe there’s some perverse incentive or other blocker.
I’m also very curious about how this method could solve issues with funding of scientific research. The lack of market pricing for research is a major impediment to allocating public funds effectively. But what prediction market can accurately estimate the price of something that might not pay off for 100 years?