You have to be really confidently optimistic or pessimistic about AI to justify a major change in consumption rates; if you assign a significant probability to “present rate no singularity”/AI winter futures then the benefits of consumption smoothing dominate and you should save almost as much (or as little) as you would if you didn’t know about AI.
hold_my_fish’s setup in which there is no increase in growth rates, either destruction or normality, is not the same as my discussion. If you include the third option of a high-growth-rate future (which is increasingly a plausible outcome), you would also want to consume a lot now to consumption-smooth, because once hypergrowth starts, you need very little capital/income to smooth/achieve the same standard of living under luxury-robot-space-communism as before. (Indeed, you might want to load up on debt on the expectation that if you survive, you’ll pay it out of growth.)
You have to be really confidently optimistic or pessimistic about AI to justify a major change in consumption rates; if you assign a significant probability to “present rate no singularity”/AI winter futures then the benefits of consumption smoothing dominate and you should save almost as much (or as little) as you would if you didn’t know about AI.
hold_my_fish’s setup in which there is no increase in growth rates, either destruction or normality, is not the same as my discussion. If you include the third option of a high-growth-rate future (which is increasingly a plausible outcome), you would also want to consume a lot now to consumption-smooth, because once hypergrowth starts, you need very little capital/income to smooth/achieve the same standard of living under luxury-robot-space-communism as before. (Indeed, you might want to load up on debt on the expectation that if you survive, you’ll pay it out of growth.)
The math in the comment I linked works the same whether the chance of money ceasing to matter in five years’ time is for happy or unhappy reasons.