Hi there! We’re particularly focused on how prediction markets can improve conversation. We think the overall crowd forecasts themselves are really cool, but for Forecast, they serve primarily as a a frame to guide discussions.
I mentioned this above, but just to expand a bit: with think the combination of the prediction market as a game mechanic + the direct incentive to write quality reasoning + the lack of real money on the line has helped create an environment that is conducive to reasoned discussion. I would guess, without having data, that these factors have also driven that the predictive accuracy in Forecast to be slightly (or significantly?) worse compared with other platforms. Because our goal is better conversation, we’re ok with this tradeoff.
It remains to be seen if and how these factors will scale if more people join the platform. As far as I know, we’re the only platform exploring precisely this combination of attributes.
Hi there! We’re particularly focused on how prediction markets can improve conversation. We think the overall crowd forecasts themselves are really cool, but for Forecast, they serve primarily as a a frame to guide discussions.
I mentioned this above, but just to expand a bit: with think the combination of the prediction market as a game mechanic + the direct incentive to write quality reasoning + the lack of real money on the line has helped create an environment that is conducive to reasoned discussion. I would guess, without having data, that these factors have also driven that the predictive accuracy in Forecast to be slightly (or significantly?) worse compared with other platforms. Because our goal is better conversation, we’re ok with this tradeoff.
It remains to be seen if and how these factors will scale if more people join the platform. As far as I know, we’re the only platform exploring precisely this combination of attributes.