There may be some severe overlap between confirmation bias and fictional evidence generalization, but then again, the entire point of an anecdote, real or fake, is to establish something that you’ve already taken to be true and demonstrate it in a more accessible lens. I don’t mean to say that the studies people run in addition to anecdotes have no weight, but, for the most part, when assessing a situation or a point, we tend to self-select the anecdotes most useful to whatever we originally believe, and those tend to stick with us more often than the exact studies which have actual weight in demonstrating the argument
I agree that often the point of an anecdote is to reinforce something you’ve taken to be true, from the teller’s perspective. But from the listener’s perspective, hearing an anecdote is often viewed as a way of exposing yourself to valid incoming evidence.
I, along with thousands of others, willfully embrace this bad mode of reasoning often when I read Yelp reviews, for example. I think, “I wonder if Restaurant X is good… hmm… let’s see what contrived, one-off experiences that others found noteworthy enough to report...”
Of course, elements of Yelp can be very helpful, and to the extent that I am careful to apply filters, look at statistically common reviews, account for selection bias, and so forth, it’s not that dangerous to just generalize from Yelp reviews. But just think of all that stuff I said which I need to do to ensure careful interpretation of Yelp reviews! And Yelp reviews can almost always be taken as true (or a ‘true perspective’ at least). Imagine how much harder that problem becomes when reading fictional sources of input.
As an extreme example, I have an anecdote (har har) from my childhood about anecdotal reasoning. My dad was a corpsman in the Marines and often overestimated his own medical prowess because of his experience. Once I had to get stitches very close to the corner of my eye (from a nasty scrape during a basketball game). My dad thought the prices for “just getting stitches” were outrageous. He sought out some anecdotal opinions of the doctor and others had plenty of one-off stories about why they didn’t like this particular doctor.
So my dad (very incorrectly) reasoned that it was better for him to take out my stitches at home. Luckily, I wasn’t injured, but my mom and dad sure had a pretty bad fight about it. Obviously, he was suffering from more severe biases than just fictional evidence, but the stories he used to justify his preferred actions were basically just embellished stories of doctor dislike. Presumably they were mostly fiction and the doctor was a perfectly skilled doctor (perhaps he didn’t have good bedside manner or something).
Anyway, my point is that this stuff comes up in different ways, and often. The teller is often motivated to believe their own conclusion. But listeners may seek out anecdotes for lots of other reasons. In the small town where I’m from, a drop of anecdote is worth more than a gallon of higher quality evidence, for sure.
There may be some severe overlap between confirmation bias and fictional evidence generalization, but then again, the entire point of an anecdote, real or fake, is to establish something that you’ve already taken to be true and demonstrate it in a more accessible lens. I don’t mean to say that the studies people run in addition to anecdotes have no weight, but, for the most part, when assessing a situation or a point, we tend to self-select the anecdotes most useful to whatever we originally believe, and those tend to stick with us more often than the exact studies which have actual weight in demonstrating the argument
I agree that often the point of an anecdote is to reinforce something you’ve taken to be true, from the teller’s perspective. But from the listener’s perspective, hearing an anecdote is often viewed as a way of exposing yourself to valid incoming evidence.
I, along with thousands of others, willfully embrace this bad mode of reasoning often when I read Yelp reviews, for example. I think, “I wonder if Restaurant X is good… hmm… let’s see what contrived, one-off experiences that others found noteworthy enough to report...”
Of course, elements of Yelp can be very helpful, and to the extent that I am careful to apply filters, look at statistically common reviews, account for selection bias, and so forth, it’s not that dangerous to just generalize from Yelp reviews. But just think of all that stuff I said which I need to do to ensure careful interpretation of Yelp reviews! And Yelp reviews can almost always be taken as true (or a ‘true perspective’ at least). Imagine how much harder that problem becomes when reading fictional sources of input.
As an extreme example, I have an anecdote (har har) from my childhood about anecdotal reasoning. My dad was a corpsman in the Marines and often overestimated his own medical prowess because of his experience. Once I had to get stitches very close to the corner of my eye (from a nasty scrape during a basketball game). My dad thought the prices for “just getting stitches” were outrageous. He sought out some anecdotal opinions of the doctor and others had plenty of one-off stories about why they didn’t like this particular doctor.
So my dad (very incorrectly) reasoned that it was better for him to take out my stitches at home. Luckily, I wasn’t injured, but my mom and dad sure had a pretty bad fight about it. Obviously, he was suffering from more severe biases than just fictional evidence, but the stories he used to justify his preferred actions were basically just embellished stories of doctor dislike. Presumably they were mostly fiction and the doctor was a perfectly skilled doctor (perhaps he didn’t have good bedside manner or something).
Anyway, my point is that this stuff comes up in different ways, and often. The teller is often motivated to believe their own conclusion. But listeners may seek out anecdotes for lots of other reasons. In the small town where I’m from, a drop of anecdote is worth more than a gallon of higher quality evidence, for sure.