I don’t know how to quantify the risk. I believe it’s serious because (a) global economic analysts like Peter Zeihan say it’s serious, and (b) it’s difficult for me to construct a plausible scenario in which that many tons per wheat a month becoming unavailable doesn’t cause famine somewhere. The risk would be especially acute in places like Egypt, Bangladesh, and Japan that combine a large population with a shortage of arable land—but while Japanese are wealthy enough to meet rising prices in the grain markets and get by, Egyptians and Bangladeshis are not.
The risk would be especially acute in places like Egypt, Bangladesh, and Japan that combine a large population with a shortage of arable land
Egypt (particularly the Nile delta) was the breadbasket of the ancient Mediterranean world. Why does it now have a shortage of arable land? Is the deal that it’s a fertile area, but small in proportion to the modern population sizes?
I don’t know how to quantify the risk. I believe it’s serious because (a) global economic analysts like Peter Zeihan say it’s serious, and (b) it’s difficult for me to construct a plausible scenario in which that many tons per wheat a month becoming unavailable doesn’t cause famine somewhere. The risk would be especially acute in places like Egypt, Bangladesh, and Japan that combine a large population with a shortage of arable land—but while Japanese are wealthy enough to meet rising prices in the grain markets and get by, Egyptians and Bangladeshis are not.
Egypt (particularly the Nile delta) was the breadbasket of the ancient Mediterranean world. Why does it now have a shortage of arable land? Is the deal that it’s a fertile area, but small in proportion to the modern population sizes?