Science is built around the assumption that you’re too stupid and self-deceiving to just use Solomonoff induction. After all, if it was that simple, we wouldn’t need a social process of science… right?
Seeing how often overconfidence bias is brought up as a problem, and how the rationality camps etc. are implemented to battle this bias, among others, this assumption doesn’t seem to be a bad starting point.
Seeing how often overconfidence bias is brought up as a problem, and how the rationality camps etc. are implemented to battle this bias, among others, this assumption doesn’t seem to be a bad starting point.