demands about people revealing private details of their finances as a precondition to the bet
Mine doesn’t either, I only ask for a credible reputation. My offer was to lower the odds from 150:1 to 100:1 if the other party would give additional financial evidence.
and as it was more favourable than what you are offering
For the people who got better than 150:1. But otherwise, I think that my bet is more appealing due to the reduced time frame. But more importantly: the ontology most frequently professed on LW, at least formerly, could not consistently allow for accepting this bet at 50:1 yet not at 150:1.
Also, your credibility as an actual bettor (as opposed to someone, say, fishing for information) is lower due to your lack of history of actual payouts.
Maybe, but I don’t think those people had thought of this: if I fail to pay out (which could be confirmed quickly) then the person who had accepted the bet would gain substantial bragging rights for reporting this, and would likely gain much karma. The event of a supposed UFO believer making a bet with rationalists, and running away after the bet had been agreed to, should be a congenial one.
Mine doesn’t either, I only ask for a credible reputation. My offer was to lower the odds from 150:1 to 100:1 if the other party would give additional financial evidence.
For the people who got better than 150:1. But otherwise, I think that my bet is more appealing due to the reduced time frame. But more importantly: the ontology most frequently professed on LW, at least formerly, could not consistently allow for accepting this bet at 50:1 yet not at 150:1.
Maybe, but I don’t think those people had thought of this: if I fail to pay out (which could be confirmed quickly) then the person who had accepted the bet would gain substantial bragging rights for reporting this, and would likely gain much karma. The event of a supposed UFO believer making a bet with rationalists, and running away after the bet had been agreed to, should be a congenial one.