I will publicly wager $100 against a single nickel with the first 10 people with extremely high LessWrong karma who want to publicly bet against my predicted RCT outcome.
And if people refuse to take such an attractive bet for the reason that my proposed cure sounds like it couldn’t possibly hurt anyone, and might indeed help, then I reiterate the point I made in The Alignment Agenda THEY Don’t Want You to Know About: the problem is not that my claims are prima facie ridiculous, it is that I myself am prima facie ridiculous.
Since you’re willing to straightforwardly exchange cash for status boosts, you could offer some comparable reward for people fitting the same criteria who will publicly take your side of the bet.
OK, anybody who publicly bets on my predicted outcome to the RCT wins the right to engage me in a LessWrong dialogue on a topic of their choosing, in which I will politely set aside my habitual certainty and trollish demeanor.
What resolution criteria should we use? Perhaps the first RCT that studies a treatment I deem sufficiently similar has to find a statistically significant effect with a publishable effect size? Or should we require that the first RCT that studies a similar treatment is halted halfway through because it would be unethical for the control group not to receive the treatment? (We could have a side bet on the latter, perhaps.)
What would the study look like? Presumably scores on a standard cognitive test designed to measure decline of Alzheimer’s patients, with four arms: control, Zoloft, Trazadone, and Zoloft + Trazadone (with all of the other components of the treatment, in particular the EPA/DHA, constant for all non-control subjects). Let me know if you have any thoughts on the study design or if I should put together a grant proposal to stsudy this.
Perhaps the first RCT that studies a treatment I deem sufficiently similar has to find a statistically significant effect with a publishable effect size?
Yes, we could require the study to be preregistered. OR to have significant-enough results - say, effect sizes greater than RCTs of the current standard treatment? (Unless the current treatments really suck, I haven’t looked into it)
They really suck. The old paradigm of Alzheimer’s research is very weak and, as I understand it, no drug has an effect size sufficient to offset even a minimal side effect profile, to the point where I think only one real drug has been approved by the FDA in the old paradigm, and that approval was super controversial. That’s my understanding, anyway. I welcome correction from anyone who knows better.
So maybe we should define the effect size in terms of cogntiive QALY’s? Say, an effective treatment should at least halve the rate of decline of the experimental arm relative to the control arm, with a stretch goal of bringing the decline to within the nuisance levels of normal, non-Alzheimer’s aging, and an even stretchier stretch goal of reversing the condition to the point where the former Alzheimer’s patient starts learning new skills and acquiring new hobbies.
I will publicly wager $100 against a single nickel with the first 10 people with extremely high LessWrong karma who want to publicly bet against my predicted RCT outcome.
And if people refuse to take such an attractive bet for the reason that my proposed cure sounds like it couldn’t possibly hurt anyone, and might indeed help, then I reiterate the point I made in The Alignment Agenda THEY Don’t Want You to Know About: the problem is not that my claims are prima facie ridiculous, it is that I myself am prima facie ridiculous.
Since you’re willing to straightforwardly exchange cash for status boosts, you could offer some comparable reward for people fitting the same criteria who will publicly take your side of the bet.
OK, anybody who publicly bets on my predicted outcome to the RCT wins the right to engage me in a LessWrong dialogue on a topic of their choosing, in which I will politely set aside my habitual certainty and trollish demeanor.
I only have moderately high karma but I’d be happy to take this bet.
OK, let’s do it. Your nickel against my $100.
What resolution criteria should we use? Perhaps the first RCT that studies a treatment I deem sufficiently similar has to find a statistically significant effect with a publishable effect size? Or should we require that the first RCT that studies a similar treatment is halted halfway through because it would be unethical for the control group not to receive the treatment? (We could have a side bet on the latter, perhaps.)
What would the study look like? Presumably scores on a standard cognitive test designed to measure decline of Alzheimer’s patients, with four arms: control, Zoloft, Trazadone, and Zoloft + Trazadone (with all of the other components of the treatment, in particular the EPA/DHA, constant for all non-control subjects). Let me know if you have any thoughts on the study design or if I should put together a grant proposal to stsudy this.
Yeah this sounds good to me.
How will we handle the desk drawer effect, where insignificant results are quietly shelved? I guess if the trial is preregistered this won’t happen...
Yes, we could require the study to be preregistered. OR to have significant-enough results - say, effect sizes greater than RCTs of the current standard treatment? (Unless the current treatments really suck, I haven’t looked into it)
They really suck. The old paradigm of Alzheimer’s research is very weak and, as I understand it, no drug has an effect size sufficient to offset even a minimal side effect profile, to the point where I think only one real drug has been approved by the FDA in the old paradigm, and that approval was super controversial. That’s my understanding, anyway. I welcome correction from anyone who knows better.
So maybe we should define the effect size in terms of cogntiive QALY’s? Say, an effective treatment should at least halve the rate of decline of the experimental arm relative to the control arm, with a stretch goal of bringing the decline to within the nuisance levels of normal, non-Alzheimer’s aging, and an even stretchier stretch goal of reversing the condition to the point where the former Alzheimer’s patient starts learning new skills and acquiring new hobbies.
Yeah, that sounds good.
I can put together some sort of proposal tonight, I suppose.