You’re definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.
I’m not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality,
P(marek fascist|marek passed a fascist policy)=P(marek saw a liberal policy)+P(marek saw 3 fascists)∗P(marek fascist)
Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I’m missing an easy application of Bayes though?
You’re definitely right about the 2/3rds. I guess I wrote this up too quickly.
I’m not sure if I agree with your next point. It seems like I have the equality, P(marek fascist|marek passed a fascist policy)=P(marek saw a liberal policy)+P(marek saw 3 fascists)∗P(marek fascist) Using the fact that the events are disjoint. Maybe I’m missing an easy application of Bayes though?