The markets you linked to roughly align with my intuition that GPT-5 before 2025 is likely, although maybe not fully released publicly.
Things to keep in mind:
We know that GPT-5 is officially in development.
The hype since ChatGPT went public is huge and competition is substantial.
Because of hype and competition, investment will be large in terms of dollars and talent.
There will be strong incentive to show a return on investment rather than holding back and waiting for something worthy of calling “GPT-5”.
Other than the amount of investment in next-gen models, most of my intuition is related to the human and marketing factors involved. OpenAI won’t want to lose its lead by waiting many years.
The markets you linked to roughly align with my intuition that GPT-5 before 2025 is likely, although maybe not fully released publicly.
Things to keep in mind:
We know that GPT-5 is officially in development.
The hype since ChatGPT went public is huge and competition is substantial.
Because of hype and competition, investment will be large in terms of dollars and talent.
There will be strong incentive to show a return on investment rather than holding back and waiting for something worthy of calling “GPT-5”.
Other than the amount of investment in next-gen models, most of my intuition is related to the human and marketing factors involved. OpenAI won’t want to lose its lead by waiting many years.