The relevant question is not, “How long until superhuman AI?”, but “Can we solve the value alignment problem before that time?” The value alignment problem looks very difficult. It probably requires figuring out how to create bug-free software… so I don’t expect a satisfactory solution within the next 50 years. Even if we knew for certain that superhuman AI wouldn’t arrive for another 100 years, it would make sense to be putting some serious effort into solving the value alignment problem now.
The relevant question is not, “How long until superhuman AI?”, but “Can we solve the value alignment problem before that time?” The value alignment problem looks very difficult. It probably requires figuring out how to create bug-free software… so I don’t expect a satisfactory solution within the next 50 years. Even if we knew for certain that superhuman AI wouldn’t arrive for another 100 years, it would make sense to be putting some serious effort into solving the value alignment problem now.