I agree that you can’t justify a prediction until it happens, but I’m urging us to consider what it actually means for a prediction to happen. This can become nuanced when you consider predictions that are statements which require multiple observations to be justified.
If I predict that a box (that we all know contains 10 swans) contains 10 white swans (My prediction is ‘There are ten white swans in this box.‘). When does that prediction actually ‘happen’? When does it become ‘justified’?
I think we all agree that after we’ve witnessed the 10th white swan, my assertion is justified. But am I justified at all to believe I am more likely to be correct after I’ve only witnessed 8 or 9 white swans?
This is a good question.
I agree that you can’t justify a prediction until it happens, but I’m urging us to consider what it actually means for a prediction to happen. This can become nuanced when you consider predictions that are statements which require multiple observations to be justified.
If I predict that a box (that we all know contains 10 swans) contains 10 white swans (My prediction is ‘There are ten white swans in this box.‘). When does that prediction actually ‘happen’? When does it become ‘justified’?
I think we all agree that after we’ve witnessed the 10th white swan, my assertion is justified. But am I justified at all to believe I am more likely to be correct after I’ve only witnessed 8 or 9 white swans?
This is controversial.