I posted a brainstorm of possible forecasting metrics a while back, which you might be interested in. It included one (which I called “Points Relative to Your Expectation”) that involved comparing a forecaster’s (Brier or other) score with the score that they’d expect to get based on their probability.
I posted a brainstorm of possible forecasting metrics a while back, which you might be interested in. It included one (which I called “Points Relative to Your Expectation”) that involved comparing a forecaster’s (Brier or other) score with the score that they’d expect to get based on their probability.
Thanks, yeah that list looks interesting!