As for market questions like “is my wife cheating on me”, I’m extremely dubious that even if you managed to get prediction markets legalized, those kinds of questions would be allowed.
This is actually already possible right now on https://manifold.markets/ Even though, the market uses play, instead of real money, but you get at least something..
Otherwise I completely agree with your critique of current prediction markets, and I agree that none of the issues seem fundamentally unresolvable. Actually, I’m currently starting a new project (funded by FTX Future Fund) which aims to do just that! Sorry for the shameless plug, but here is a description of the project, and while I’m at it, I’m looking for a cofounder ;)
I’m aware of Manifold Markets. The only reason the site can be lax with regards to which markets and resolution criteria it allows is precisely because it only uses play money.
This is actually already possible right now on https://manifold.markets/ Even though, the market uses play, instead of real money, but you get at least something..
Otherwise I completely agree with your critique of current prediction markets, and I agree that none of the issues seem fundamentally unresolvable. Actually, I’m currently starting a new project (funded by FTX Future Fund) which aims to do just that! Sorry for the shameless plug, but here is a description of the project, and while I’m at it, I’m looking for a cofounder ;)
I’m aware of Manifold Markets. The only reason the site can be lax with regards to which markets and resolution criteria it allows is precisely because it only uses play money.