Prediction markets would lead to good AI timeline forecasts.
It is easy to bet on p(doom), as long as doing so is legally supported. If Alice believes that the world will end in five years, and Bob does not:
Alice and Bob sign a contract.
Bob gives Alice $50k.
If the world is still around in five years, Alice must give Bob $200k.
Therefore, prediction markets will forecast the apocalypse.
Decision markets will evaluate {legislation/​executive orders/​candidates} with respect to their effects on the apocalypse-forecasts.
Therefore, prediction markets will enable coordination against building AGI.
Prediction markets would lead to good AI timeline forecasts.
It is easy to bet on p(doom), as long as doing so is legally supported. If Alice believes that the world will end in five years, and Bob does not:
Alice and Bob sign a contract.
Bob gives Alice $50k.
If the world is still around in five years, Alice must give Bob $200k.
Therefore, prediction markets will forecast the apocalypse.
Decision markets will evaluate {legislation/​executive orders/​candidates} with respect to their effects on the apocalypse-forecasts.
Therefore, prediction markets will enable coordination against building AGI.