Given the sheer complexity of the human brain, it seems very unlikely anyone could possibly assess a 97% probability of revival without conditioning on AI of some strong form, if not a full AGI.
It seems very unlikely that anyone could credibly assess a 97% probability of revival for the majority at all, if they haven’t already successfully carried it out at least a few times. Even a fully aligned strongly superhuman AGI may well say “nope, they’re gone” and provide a process for preservation that works instead of whatever they actually did.
I think we’re supposed to assume as part of the premise that dath ilan’s material science and neuroscience are good enough that they got preservation right—that is, they are justly confident that the neurology is preserved at the biochemical level. Since even we are reasonably certain that that’s the necessary data, the big question is just whether we can ever successfully data mine and model it.
Given the sheer complexity of the human brain, it seems very unlikely anyone could possibly assess a 97% probability of revival without conditioning on AI of some strong form, if not a full AGI.
It seems very unlikely that anyone could credibly assess a 97% probability of revival for the majority at all, if they haven’t already successfully carried it out at least a few times. Even a fully aligned strongly superhuman AGI may well say “nope, they’re gone” and provide a process for preservation that works instead of whatever they actually did.
I think we’re supposed to assume as part of the premise that dath ilan’s material science and neuroscience are good enough that they got preservation right—that is, they are justly confident that the neurology is preserved at the biochemical level. Since even we are reasonably certain that that’s the necessary data, the big question is just whether we can ever successfully data mine and model it.