I assign a greater than 1% probability for each of these questions that all of the information I’ve taken in about the situation is completely wrong in some fashion. It’s quite possible that I actually have no idea how the stock market, for example, works. There’s lots of misinformation floating around each of these questions.
Generally, .1<p<.9 comes from not having a good gears-level model for the situation, for me. .9<p<.99 comes from concerns around the trustworthiness of data or from insufficiently tested models.
I assign a greater than 1% probability for each of these questions that all of the information I’ve taken in about the situation is completely wrong in some fashion. It’s quite possible that I actually have no idea how the stock market, for example, works. There’s lots of misinformation floating around each of these questions.
Generally, .1<p<.9 comes from not having a good gears-level model for the situation, for me. .9<p<.99 comes from concerns around the trustworthiness of data or from insufficiently tested models.