To be naively utilitarian, this question is reducible to following expression:
shouldBeAMoronAndAccelerate = (
pda * (ud + gud / sf) +
pia * ui +
(1 - pda—pia) * ud
>
pds * (ud + gud / sf) +
pis * ui +
(1 - pds—pis) * ud
)
where:
pda: Probability of doom if you ignore safety and accelerate
pds: Probability of doom if you pay attention to safety
pia: Probability of achieving immortality if you accelerate
pis: Probability of achieving immortality of you play safe
ud: “Selfish” utility gain if you die (very negative)
gud: “Common good” utility gain if everyone dies (even more negative)
ui: “Selfish” utility gain if you achieve immortality (positive)
sf: “Selfish factor”—how much “Common good” utility you’re willing to sacrifice per unit “Selfish” utility.
(you can also add terms for living happily ever after without immortality and stuff like that, but utility gain in this cases is negligible in comparison)
The main problem I see is that pia < pis.
In other words, no matter how high your “Selfish factor” is—accelerating is equivalent to shooting yourself in a leg. Also you die. Also everyone dies.
To be naively utilitarian, this question is reducible to following expression:
shouldBeAMoronAndAccelerate = ( pda * (ud + gud / sf) + pia * ui + (1 - pda—pia) * ud > pds * (ud + gud / sf) + pis * ui + (1 - pds—pis) * ud )
where:
pda: Probability of doom if you ignore safety and accelerate
pds: Probability of doom if you pay attention to safety
pia: Probability of achieving immortality if you accelerate
pis: Probability of achieving immortality of you play safe
ud: “Selfish” utility gain if you die (very negative)
gud: “Common good” utility gain if everyone dies (even more negative)
ui: “Selfish” utility gain if you achieve immortality (positive)
sf: “Selfish factor”—how much “Common good” utility you’re willing to sacrifice per unit “Selfish” utility.
(you can also add terms for living happily ever after without immortality and stuff like that, but utility gain in this cases is negligible in comparison)
The main problem I see is that pia < pis.
In other words, no matter how high your “Selfish factor” is—accelerating is equivalent to shooting yourself in a leg. Also you die. Also everyone dies.