Yeah that’s a reasonable way to look at it. I’m not sure how much the two approaches really disagree: both are saying that the actual intervals people are giving are narrower than their genuine 90% intervals, and both presumably say that this is modulated by the fact that in everyday life, 50% intervals tend to be better. Right?
Yeah sounds right to me!
I haven’t come across any interval-estimation studies that ask for intervals narrower than 20%, though Don Moore (probably THE expert on this stuff) told me that people have told him about unpublished findings where yes, when they ask for 20% intervals people are underprecise.
There definitely are situations with estimation (variants on the two-point method) where people look over-confident in estimates >50% and underconfident in estimates <50%, though you don’t always get that.
Yeah sounds right to me!
Nice, thanks!