Looking at unlikely happenings more sensibly. Remembering that whenever something really unlikely happens to you, it’s not a sign from the heavens. I must remember to take into account the number of other unlikely things that might have happened instead that I would also have noticed, and the number of things that happen in a typical time. In a city of a million people, meeting a particular person might seem like a one in a million chance. But if I know a thousand people in the city, and walk past a thousand people in an hour, the chance of bumping into one of my friends is pretty good.
The other one? We’re all too optimistic about our own abilities. Most of the time that’s pretty benign, but it’s a good thing to remember when considering employing yourself as a stock picker, gambling advisor, or automobile driver. We’re actually much more average than we think, most of the time.
My top 2....
Looking at unlikely happenings more sensibly. Remembering that whenever something really unlikely happens to you, it’s not a sign from the heavens. I must remember to take into account the number of other unlikely things that might have happened instead that I would also have noticed, and the number of things that happen in a typical time. In a city of a million people, meeting a particular person might seem like a one in a million chance. But if I know a thousand people in the city, and walk past a thousand people in an hour, the chance of bumping into one of my friends is pretty good.
The other one? We’re all too optimistic about our own abilities. Most of the time that’s pretty benign, but it’s a good thing to remember when considering employing yourself as a stock picker, gambling advisor, or automobile driver. We’re actually much more average than we think, most of the time.