One-in-a-million is just an estimate. Immortality is a tough proposition, but the singularity might make it happen. The important part is that it isn’t completely implausible.
I’m not sure what you mean, otherwise.
Are you suggesting that Omega takes away any chance of achieving immortality even before making the offer? In that case, Omega’s a jerk, but I’ll shut up and multiply.
Or are you saying that 10^10,000,000,000 years could be used for other high-utility projects, like making simulated universes full of generally happy people? Immortality would allow even more time for that.
Ok, yeah, in that case my response is to take as many deals as Omega offers.
AdeleneDawner and gwern provide a way to make the idea more palatable—assume MWI. That is, assume there will be one “alive” branch and a bunch of “dead” branches. That way, your utility payoff is guaranteed. (Ignoring the grief of those around you in all the “dead” branches.)
Without that interpretation, the idea becomes scarier, but the math still comes down firmly on the side of accepting all the offers. It certainly feels like a bad idea to accept that probability of death, no matter what the math says, but as far as I can tell that’s scope insensitivity talking.
With that in mind, my only remaining objection is the “we can do better than that” argument presented above. My feeling is, why not use a few of those 10^10,000,000,000 years to figure out a way to live even longer? Omega won’t allow it? Ok, so I don’t want to get involved with Omega in the first place; it’s not worth losing my (admittedly slim) chances at actual immortality. Too late for that? Fine, then I’ll sit down, shut up, and multiply.
One-in-a-million is just an estimate. Immortality is a tough proposition, but the singularity might make it happen. The important part is that it isn’t completely implausible.
I’m not sure what you mean, otherwise.
Are you suggesting that Omega takes away any chance of achieving immortality even before making the offer? In that case, Omega’s a jerk, but I’ll shut up and multiply.
Or are you saying that 10^10,000,000,000 years could be used for other high-utility projects, like making simulated universes full of generally happy people? Immortality would allow even more time for that.
#1, although I was thinking in terms of someone from a civilization with no singularity in sight. Thanks for clarifying!
Ok, yeah, in that case my response is to take as many deals as Omega offers.
AdeleneDawner and gwern provide a way to make the idea more palatable—assume MWI. That is, assume there will be one “alive” branch and a bunch of “dead” branches. That way, your utility payoff is guaranteed. (Ignoring the grief of those around you in all the “dead” branches.)
Without that interpretation, the idea becomes scarier, but the math still comes down firmly on the side of accepting all the offers. It certainly feels like a bad idea to accept that probability of death, no matter what the math says, but as far as I can tell that’s scope insensitivity talking.
With that in mind, my only remaining objection is the “we can do better than that” argument presented above. My feeling is, why not use a few of those 10^10,000,000,000 years to figure out a way to live even longer? Omega won’t allow it? Ok, so I don’t want to get involved with Omega in the first place; it’s not worth losing my (admittedly slim) chances at actual immortality. Too late for that? Fine, then I’ll sit down, shut up, and multiply.