I’m not saying that your individual vote is going to make any noticeable difference, but the votes of every jaded rationalist in America on the other hand...
By voting, you will not make (or probably even encourage) every jaded rationalist in America to vote, so from a decision theoretical standpoint that observation is irrelevant. The instrumental value of voting is zero. There may be other values (signaling, pleasure, moral), but there is no instrumental value. You will not influence the election, so the expected value of any policy changes arising from just your vote is zero. Once you think of it strictly in terms of decision theory, the relevant variables should present themselves.
For those of us who don’t care that much about signaling interest in government and don’t think there’s any particular moral duty to vote (I think there is frequently a moral duty to abstain), wasting an hour on an internet forum is a much better use of our time.
If I had my way, voting would be compulsory in every democracy on the planet.
I know it’s normal in some countries, but I think this is an AWFUL policy. Why? Consider it in economic terms of negative and positive externalities. Say I’m a good voter who knows a thing or two about policy. When I vote, it very (very very very) marginally affects policy outcomes. When a bunch of good voters vote, policy outcomes become better.
Now turn it around. When a bad voter votes, it very (very very very) marginally affects policy outcomes. When a bunch of bad voters vote, policy outcomes become worse.
This is wonderfully analogous to pollution. By leaving a fan on all day, you only very marginally contribute to global warming. So, even if you’re interested in stopping global warming for selfish reasons, there’s nothing you can personally do to hinder it, so why bother? But there’s no personal incentive for anybody to bother, so global warming happens. Meanwhile, global warming affects more people than just you, and bad voting does the same. When you indulge your idiotic ideas of good policy, it doesn’t have any effect on the election, so it doesn’t have any effect on you. But since everybody’s doing it, policy gets dumb.
So the question becomes, when comparing voluntary and mandatory voting, which types of voters are more likely to abstain in a voluntary system?
I don’t see the need to hunt for the stats right now, but if you don’t believe me, I’ll happily scan some relevant sections from Scott Althaus’ Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics and Carpini and Keeter’s What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matter. The basic story is this: In America, people who are educated are way more likely to vote than those who aren’t, and uneducated people have demonstrably and outrageously boneheaded beliefs about policy. Forcing them to vote is like mandating bad policy.
(Hence what I said earlier about a moral duty to abstain. Like there might be a moral duty to reduce your carbon consumption, even though it will have no effect on the environment, there might be a moral duty to abstain from voting if you’re an ignoramus.)
By voting, you will not make (or probably even encourage) every jaded rationalist in America to vote, so from a decision theoretical standpoint that observation is irrelevant.
That’s not quite what I meant. If people think similarly to you, then they will most likely make similar decisions as you. Now that I’ve suggested this to you, you think similarly to all the people out there who realised this themselves or had someone point it out to them. So when you decide whether or not to vote, you should do so in the knowledge that there are a bunch of people out there who will probably end up making the same decision as you purely because they think similarly to you. You’re not just deciding for yourself, you’re deciding for everyone who thinks like you.
EDIT: Also, I disagree with you about the negative effects of compulsory voting. There are definitely some, but I think the negative effects of NON-compulsory voting are potentially worse. See my comment to Drethelin below.
By voting, you will not make (or probably even encourage) every jaded rationalist in America to vote, so from a decision theoretical standpoint that observation is irrelevant. The instrumental value of voting is zero. There may be other values (signaling, pleasure, moral), but there is no instrumental value. You will not influence the election, so the expected value of any policy changes arising from just your vote is zero. Once you think of it strictly in terms of decision theory, the relevant variables should present themselves.
For those of us who don’t care that much about signaling interest in government and don’t think there’s any particular moral duty to vote (I think there is frequently a moral duty to abstain), wasting an hour on an internet forum is a much better use of our time.
I know it’s normal in some countries, but I think this is an AWFUL policy. Why? Consider it in economic terms of negative and positive externalities. Say I’m a good voter who knows a thing or two about policy. When I vote, it very (very very very) marginally affects policy outcomes. When a bunch of good voters vote, policy outcomes become better.
Now turn it around. When a bad voter votes, it very (very very very) marginally affects policy outcomes. When a bunch of bad voters vote, policy outcomes become worse.
This is wonderfully analogous to pollution. By leaving a fan on all day, you only very marginally contribute to global warming. So, even if you’re interested in stopping global warming for selfish reasons, there’s nothing you can personally do to hinder it, so why bother? But there’s no personal incentive for anybody to bother, so global warming happens. Meanwhile, global warming affects more people than just you, and bad voting does the same. When you indulge your idiotic ideas of good policy, it doesn’t have any effect on the election, so it doesn’t have any effect on you. But since everybody’s doing it, policy gets dumb.
So the question becomes, when comparing voluntary and mandatory voting, which types of voters are more likely to abstain in a voluntary system?
I don’t see the need to hunt for the stats right now, but if you don’t believe me, I’ll happily scan some relevant sections from Scott Althaus’ Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics and Carpini and Keeter’s What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matter. The basic story is this: In America, people who are educated are way more likely to vote than those who aren’t, and uneducated people have demonstrably and outrageously boneheaded beliefs about policy. Forcing them to vote is like mandating bad policy.
(Hence what I said earlier about a moral duty to abstain. Like there might be a moral duty to reduce your carbon consumption, even though it will have no effect on the environment, there might be a moral duty to abstain from voting if you’re an ignoramus.)
That’s not quite what I meant. If people think similarly to you, then they will most likely make similar decisions as you. Now that I’ve suggested this to you, you think similarly to all the people out there who realised this themselves or had someone point it out to them. So when you decide whether or not to vote, you should do so in the knowledge that there are a bunch of people out there who will probably end up making the same decision as you purely because they think similarly to you. You’re not just deciding for yourself, you’re deciding for everyone who thinks like you.
EDIT: Also, I disagree with you about the negative effects of compulsory voting. There are definitely some, but I think the negative effects of NON-compulsory voting are potentially worse. See my comment to Drethelin below.