Your whole comment is founded on a false assumption. Look at Bayes’ formula. Do you see any mention of whether your probability estimate is “just your prior” or “the result of a huge amount of investigation and very strong reasoning” ? No ? Well this mean that this doesn’t effect how much you’ll update.
This is untrue. Consider a novice and an expert who both assign 0.5 probability to some proposition A. Let event B be a professor saying that A is true. Let’s also say that both the novice and the expert assign 0.5 probability to B. But the key term here is P(B|A). For a novice, this is plausibly quite high, because for all they know there’s already a scientific consensus on A which they just hadn’t heard about yet. For the expert, this is probably near 0.5, because they’re confident that the professor has no better source of information than they do.
In other words, experts may update less on evidence because the effect of that evidence is “screened off” by things they already knew. But it’s difficult to quantify this effect.
Your whole comment is founded on a false assumption. Look at Bayes’ formula. Do you see any mention of whether your probability estimate is “just your prior” or “the result of a huge amount of investigation and very strong reasoning” ? No ? Well this mean that this doesn’t effect how much you’ll update.
This is untrue. Consider a novice and an expert who both assign 0.5 probability to some proposition A. Let event B be a professor saying that A is true. Let’s also say that both the novice and the expert assign 0.5 probability to B. But the key term here is P(B|A). For a novice, this is plausibly quite high, because for all they know there’s already a scientific consensus on A which they just hadn’t heard about yet. For the expert, this is probably near 0.5, because they’re confident that the professor has no better source of information than they do.
In other words, experts may update less on evidence because the effect of that evidence is “screened off” by things they already knew. But it’s difficult to quantify this effect.