lalaithion and jbeshir made predictions at the time of the announcement, while bendini and I made predictions at closing time, about two months later. This should have been a substantial advantage for us. Indeed, the fall in bitcoin from $9k to $6k helped us a lot. On many questions about whether something occurs (eg, Fatah and Hamas reconcile) we should multiply the probability by about 6⁄8 because we were considering a 6 month span, while they were considering an 8 month span. But I was systematically less confident than they were and I think bendini only about as confident.
lalaithion and jbeshir made predictions at the time of the announcement, while bendini and I made predictions at closing time, about two months later. This should have been a substantial advantage for us. Indeed, the fall in bitcoin from $9k to $6k helped us a lot. On many questions about whether something occurs (eg, Fatah and Hamas reconcile) we should multiply the probability by about 6⁄8 because we were considering a 6 month span, while they were considering an 8 month span. But I was systematically less confident than they were and I think bendini only about as confident.