In different ways from different vantage points, I’ve always seen saving for retirement as a point of hedging my bets, and I don’t think the likelihood of doom changes that for me.
Why do I expect I’ll want or have to retire? Well, when I get old I’ll get to a point where I can’t do useful work any more… unless humans solve aging (in which case I’ll have more wealth and still be able to work, which is still a good position), or unless we get wiped out (in which case the things I could have spent the money on may or may not counterfactually matter to me, depending on my beliefs regarding whether past events still have value in a world now devoid of human life).
When I do save for retirement, I use a variety of different vehicles for doing so, each an attempt hedge against the weakness of some of the others (like possible future changes in laws or tax codes or the relative importance and power of different countries and currencies), but there are some I can’t really hedge against, like “we won’t use money anymore or live in a capitalist market economy,” or “all of my assets will be seized or destroyed by something I don’t anticipate.”
I might think differently if there was some asset I believed I could buy or thing I could give money to that would meaningfully reduce the likelihood of doom. I don’t currently think that. But I do think it’s valuable to redirect the portion of my income that goes towards current consumption to focus on things that make my life meaningful to me in the near and medium term. I believe that whether I’m doomed or not, and whether the world is doomed or not. Either way, it’s often good to do the same kinds of things in everyday life.
If you believe in doom in the next 2 decades, what are you doing in your life right now that you would’ve otherwise not done?
For instance, does it make sense to save for retirement if I’m in my twenties?
In different ways from different vantage points, I’ve always seen saving for retirement as a point of hedging my bets, and I don’t think the likelihood of doom changes that for me.
Why do I expect I’ll want or have to retire? Well, when I get old I’ll get to a point where I can’t do useful work any more… unless humans solve aging (in which case I’ll have more wealth and still be able to work, which is still a good position), or unless we get wiped out (in which case the things I could have spent the money on may or may not counterfactually matter to me, depending on my beliefs regarding whether past events still have value in a world now devoid of human life).
When I do save for retirement, I use a variety of different vehicles for doing so, each an attempt hedge against the weakness of some of the others (like possible future changes in laws or tax codes or the relative importance and power of different countries and currencies), but there are some I can’t really hedge against, like “we won’t use money anymore or live in a capitalist market economy,” or “all of my assets will be seized or destroyed by something I don’t anticipate.”
I might think differently if there was some asset I believed I could buy or thing I could give money to that would meaningfully reduce the likelihood of doom. I don’t currently think that. But I do think it’s valuable to redirect the portion of my income that goes towards current consumption to focus on things that make my life meaningful to me in the near and medium term. I believe that whether I’m doomed or not, and whether the world is doomed or not. Either way, it’s often good to do the same kinds of things in everyday life.
Just saying this question resonates with me, it feels unprocessed for me, and I’m not sure what to do about it.
Thoughts so far:
Enjoy life
I still save money, sill prepared mostly normally for long-term
Do get over my psychological barriers and try being useful
Do advocacy, especially with my smart friends
Create a gears-level model if I can, stop relying on experts (so that I can actually TRY to have a useful idea instead of giving up in advance)