People like Warren Buffet have made their fortune by assuming that we will continue to operate with “business as usual”. Warren Buffet is a particularly bad person to list as an example for AGI risk, because he is famously technology-averse; as an investor, he missed most of the internet revolution (Google/Amazon/Facebook/Netflix) as well.
But in general, most people, even very smart people, naturally assume that the world will continue to operate the way it always has, unless they have a very good reason to believe otherwise. One cannot expect non-technically-minded people who have not examined the risks of AGI in detail to be concerned.
By analogy, the risks of climate change have been very well established scientifically (much more so than AGI), those risks are relatively severe, the risks have been described in detail every 5 years in IPCC reports, there is massive worldwide scientific consensus, lots and LOTS of smart people are extremely worried, and yet the Warren Buffets of the world still continue with business as usual anyway. There’s a lot of social inertia.
When I say smart people, I am trying to point to intelligence that is general instead of narrow. Some people are really good at ie. investing but not actually good at other things. That would be a narrow intelligence. A general intelligence, to me, is where you have more broadly applicable skills.
Regarding Warren Buffet, I’m not actually sure if he is a good example or not. I don’t know too much about him. Ray Dalio is probably a good example.
People like Warren Buffet have made their fortune by assuming that we will continue to operate with “business as usual”. Warren Buffet is a particularly bad person to list as an example for AGI risk, because he is famously technology-averse; as an investor, he missed most of the internet revolution (Google/Amazon/Facebook/Netflix) as well.
But in general, most people, even very smart people, naturally assume that the world will continue to operate the way it always has, unless they have a very good reason to believe otherwise. One cannot expect non-technically-minded people who have not examined the risks of AGI in detail to be concerned.
By analogy, the risks of climate change have been very well established scientifically (much more so than AGI), those risks are relatively severe, the risks have been described in detail every 5 years in IPCC reports, there is massive worldwide scientific consensus, lots and LOTS of smart people are extremely worried, and yet the Warren Buffets of the world still continue with business as usual anyway. There’s a lot of social inertia.
When I say smart people, I am trying to point to intelligence that is general instead of narrow. Some people are really good at ie. investing but not actually good at other things. That would be a narrow intelligence. A general intelligence, to me, is where you have more broadly applicable skills.
Regarding Warren Buffet, I’m not actually sure if he is a good example or not. I don’t know too much about him. Ray Dalio is probably a good example.