Macroeconomics. My opinion and understanding used to be based on undergrad courses and a few popular blogs. I understood much more than the “average person” about the economy (so say we all) and therefore believed that I my opinion was worth listening to. My understanding is much better now but I still lack a good understanding of the fundamentals (because textbooks disagree so violently on even the most basic things). If I talk about the economy I phrase almost everything in terms of “Economist Y thinks X leads to Z because of A, B, C.”. This keeps the different schools of economics from blending together in some incomprehensible mess.
QM. Still on mount stupid, and I know it. I have to bite my tongue not to debate Many Worlds with physics PhDs.
Evolution. Definitely on mount stupid. I know this because I used to think “group pressure” was a good argument until EY persuaded me otherwise. I haven’t studied evolution since so I must be on mount stupid still.
Aside from being aware of the concept of Mount Stupid I have not changed my behavior all that much. If I keep studying I know I’m going to get beyond Mount Stupid eventually. The faster I study the less time I spend on top of mount stupid and the less likely I am to make a fool out of myself. So that’s my strategy.
I have become much more careful about monitoring my own cognitive processes: am I saying this just to win the argument? Am I looking specifically for arguments that support my position, and if so, am I sure I’m not rationalizing? So in that respect I’ve improved a little. It’s probably the most valuable sort of introspection that typical well educated and intelligent people lack.
One crucial point about Mount Stupid that hasn’t been mentioned here yet is that it applies every time you “level up” on a subject. Every time you level up on a subject you’re at a new valley with a Mount Stupid you have to cross. You can be an expert frequentist rationalist but a lousy Bayesian rationalist, and by learning a little about Bayesianism you can become stupider (because you’re good at distinguishing good vs bad frequentist reasoning but you can’t tell the difference for Bayes (and if you don’t know you can’t tell the difference you’re also on Meta Mount Stupid)).
I don’t think so, because my understanding of the topic didn’t improve—I just don’t want to make a fool out of myself.
I’ve moved beyond mount stupid on the meta level, the level where I can now tell more accurately whether my understanding of a subject is lousy or OK. On the subject level I’m still stupid, and my reasoning, if I had to write it down, would still make my future self cringe.
The temptation to opine is still there and there is still a mountain of stupid to overcome, and being aware of this is in fact part of the solution. So for me Mount Stupid is still a useful memetic trick.
Does Mount Stupid refer to the observation that people tend to talk loudly and confidently about subjects they barely understand (but not about subjects they understand so poorly that they know they must understand it poorly)? In that case, yes, once you stop opining the phenomenon (Mount Stupid) goes away.
Mount Stupid has a very different meaning to me. To me it refers to the idea that “feeling of competence” and “actual competence” are not linearly correlated. You can gain a little in actual competence and gain a LOT in terms of “feeling of competence”. This is when you’re on Mount Stupid. Then, as you learn more your feeling of competence and actual competence sort of converge.
The picture that takes “Willingness to opine” on the Y-axis is, in my opinion, a funny observation of the phenomenon that people who learn a little bit about a subject become really vocal about it. It’s just a funny way to visualize the real insight (Δ feeling of competence != Δ competence) in a way that connects to people because we can probably all remember when we made that specific mistake (talking confidently about a subject we knew little about).
I understood it to come from here, but if there’s another source or we wish to adopt a different usage I’m fine with that. Actual vs. perceived competence is probably a more useful comparison.
Macroeconomics. My opinion and understanding used to be based on undergrad courses and a few popular blogs. I understood much more than the “average person” about the economy (so say we all) and therefore believed that I my opinion was worth listening to. My understanding is much better now but I still lack a good understanding of the fundamentals (because textbooks disagree so violently on even the most basic things). If I talk about the economy I phrase almost everything in terms of “Economist Y thinks X leads to Z because of A, B, C.”. This keeps the different schools of economics from blending together in some incomprehensible mess.
QM. Still on mount stupid, and I know it. I have to bite my tongue not to debate Many Worlds with physics PhDs.
Evolution. Definitely on mount stupid. I know this because I used to think “group pressure” was a good argument until EY persuaded me otherwise. I haven’t studied evolution since so I must be on mount stupid still.
Aside from being aware of the concept of Mount Stupid I have not changed my behavior all that much. If I keep studying I know I’m going to get beyond Mount Stupid eventually. The faster I study the less time I spend on top of mount stupid and the less likely I am to make a fool out of myself. So that’s my strategy.
I have become much more careful about monitoring my own cognitive processes: am I saying this just to win the argument? Am I looking specifically for arguments that support my position, and if so, am I sure I’m not rationalizing? So in that respect I’ve improved a little. It’s probably the most valuable sort of introspection that typical well educated and intelligent people lack.
One crucial point about Mount Stupid that hasn’t been mentioned here yet is that it applies every time you “level up” on a subject. Every time you level up on a subject you’re at a new valley with a Mount Stupid you have to cross. You can be an expert frequentist rationalist but a lousy Bayesian rationalist, and by learning a little about Bayesianism you can become stupider (because you’re good at distinguishing good vs bad frequentist reasoning but you can’t tell the difference for Bayes (and if you don’t know you can’t tell the difference you’re also on Meta Mount Stupid)).
If you’re successfully biting your toungue, doesn’t that put you off “Mount Stupid”, as the y axis is “willingness to opine on topic”?
I don’t think so, because my understanding of the topic didn’t improve—I just don’t want to make a fool out of myself.
I’ve moved beyond mount stupid on the meta level, the level where I can now tell more accurately whether my understanding of a subject is lousy or OK. On the subject level I’m still stupid, and my reasoning, if I had to write it down, would still make my future self cringe.
The temptation to opine is still there and there is still a mountain of stupid to overcome, and being aware of this is in fact part of the solution. So for me Mount Stupid is still a useful memetic trick.
Maybe you leveled the mountain? :-P Being “on” the mountain while not being willing to opine just seems like a strange use of words.
Does Mount Stupid refer to the observation that people tend to talk loudly and confidently about subjects they barely understand (but not about subjects they understand so poorly that they know they must understand it poorly)? In that case, yes, once you stop opining the phenomenon (Mount Stupid) goes away.
Mount Stupid has a very different meaning to me. To me it refers to the idea that “feeling of competence” and “actual competence” are not linearly correlated. You can gain a little in actual competence and gain a LOT in terms of “feeling of competence”. This is when you’re on Mount Stupid. Then, as you learn more your feeling of competence and actual competence sort of converge.
The picture that takes “Willingness to opine” on the Y-axis is, in my opinion, a funny observation of the phenomenon that people who learn a little bit about a subject become really vocal about it. It’s just a funny way to visualize the real insight (Δ feeling of competence != Δ competence) in a way that connects to people because we can probably all remember when we made that specific mistake (talking confidently about a subject we knew little about).
I understood it to come from here, but if there’s another source or we wish to adopt a different usage I’m fine with that. Actual vs. perceived competence is probably a more useful comparison.
That comic is my source too. I just never considered taking it at face value (too many apparent contradictions). My bad for mind projection.