Whatever the probability of AGI in the reasonably near future (5-10 years), the probability of societal shifts due to implementation of highly capable yet sub-AGI AI is strictly higher. I think regardless of where AI “lands” in terms of slowing down in progress (if it is the case we see an AI winter/fall), the application of systems that exist even just today, even if technological progress were to stop, is enough to merit appreciating the different world that is coming within the same order of magnitude as how different it would be with AGI.
I think it’s almost impossible at this point to argue against the value of providence with respect to the rise of dumb (in the relative to AGI sense) but highly highly capable AI.
Whatever the probability of AGI in the reasonably near future (5-10 years), the probability of societal shifts due to implementation of highly capable yet sub-AGI AI is strictly higher. I think regardless of where AI “lands” in terms of slowing down in progress (if it is the case we see an AI winter/fall), the application of systems that exist even just today, even if technological progress were to stop, is enough to merit appreciating the different world that is coming within the same order of magnitude as how different it would be with AGI.
I think it’s almost impossible at this point to argue against the value of providence with respect to the rise of dumb (in the relative to AGI sense) but highly highly capable AI.