Perhaps worth noting: this estimate seems too low to me over longer horizons than the next 10 years, given the potential for asteroid terrorism later this century. I’m significantly more worried about asteroids being directed towards Earth purposely than I am about natural asteroid paths.
That said, my guess is that purposeful asteroid deflection probably won’t advance much in the next 10 years, at least without AGI. So 0.02% is still a reasonable estimate if we don’t get accelerated technological development soon.
Nice consideration, we hadn’t considered non-natural asteroids here. I agree this is a consideration as humanity reaches for the stars, or the rest of the solar system.
If you’ve thought about it a bit more, do you have a sense of your probability over the next 100 years?
Perhaps worth noting: this estimate seems too low to me over longer horizons than the next 10 years, given the potential for asteroid terrorism later this century. I’m significantly more worried about asteroids being directed towards Earth purposely than I am about natural asteroid paths.
That said, my guess is that purposeful asteroid deflection probably won’t advance much in the next 10 years, at least without AGI. So 0.02% is still a reasonable estimate if we don’t get accelerated technological development soon.
Nice consideration, we hadn’t considered non-natural asteroids here. I agree this is a consideration as humanity reaches for the stars, or the rest of the solar system.
If you’ve thought about it a bit more, do you have a sense of your probability over the next 100 years?