Finally, none of the frameworks make provisions for putting probabilities on anything. The framework itself needn’t include the hard numbers—indeed, such numbers might best be continually updated—but a risk management framework should point to a process that outputs well-calibrated risk estimates for known and unknown pathways before and after mitigation.
AI companies should publish numerical predictions, open Metaculus questions for each of their predictions, and provide large monetary prizes for predictors.
AI companies should publish numerical predictions, open Metaculus questions for each of their predictions, and provide large monetary prizes for predictors.